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Implicit here is an assumption that the lifetime of subscribers is exponentially distributed. Which may or may not be the case.


"Churn rates are constant given age" is a model which is generally false-but-useful at SaaS companies, particularly for ages over 2~3 billing periods (months), while folks are basically on extended trialing before really deciding on adoption or not.


I agree, if you're going to the trouble of modelling then a stochastic matrix (markov chain) is a much better model. You can model it as a markov chain where each month there's a probability of moving to age + 1 or a probability of becoming 'ex-sub' (general population).

You also have a transition from 'general population' to 'month 1' to represent new sign-ups.

That has the advantage that you can still find the stationary distribution (steady-state) of the chain without simulation and it doesn't treat churn as being the same for each subscriber age. (It still has it time-homogeneous for a given age of course).


Saying that you lose r% of clients each month should be enough information, why should the distribution of customer longevity be interesting?




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